Odds calculator
Odds calculator: how many boxes until your card?
Choose a set and a card. You see the estimated chance per box, how many boxes you need on average, what that costs at our current box price and what the single card is worth.
- Chance per boxEstimate
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- Average number of boxes
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- Average cost of chasing
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- Single card (market value)
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Chance of this card at least once
Cost of those boxes
The other cards you pull from those boxes are not included. Market values: PriceCharting, single card ungraded, with the date on the card page.
How the calculator works
The chance per box (p) comes from the pull rates of the set. If we know what share of boxes contains a rarity and how many different cards that rarity has, we divide the chance by the number of cards. We assume equal odds within a rarity.
On average you need 1/p boxes. With n boxes, the chance of pulling the card at least once is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. There are no official pull rates: everything here is an estimate.
All cards with their chance per box
| Card | Market value | Chance per box |
|---|---|---|
| Acerola's Mischief (SAR #90) Mega Symphonia (M1S) |
€21 | 1 in 18 |
| Arceus VSTAR (UR #262) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€125 | 1 in 40 |
| Blastoise ex (SAR #202) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€109 | not known |
| Charizard (Classic Collection #137) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€170 | 1 in 15 |
| Charizard ex (SAR #201) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€295 | not known |
| Charizard V (SAR #211) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€40 | 1 in 25 |
| Charizard VSTAR (SAR #212) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€71 | 1 in 25 |
| Cinccino ex (SAR #117) Ninja Spinner (M4) |
€29 | 1 in 18 |
| Dawn (SAR #115) Inferno X (M2) |
€18 | 1 in 21 |
| Dragonite (Master Ball #149) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€84 | 1 in 153 |
| Dwebble (AR #135) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€19 | 1 in 18 |
| Espeon ex (SAR #211) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€54 | 1 in 33 |
| Flareon ex (SAR #202) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€44 | 1 in 33 |
| Genesect ex (SAR #172) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€21 | 1 in 28 |
| Gengar (Classic Collection #150) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€53 | 1 in 15 |
| Gengar ex (SAR #131) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€51 | 1 in 10 |
| Gengar (Master Ball #94) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€508 | 1 in 153 |
| Giratina VSTAR (UR #261) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€196 | 1 in 40 |
| Glaceon ex (SAR #206) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€48 | 1 in 33 |
| Gladion's Showdown (SAR #116) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€12 | 1 in 19 |
| Gwynn (SAR #117) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€23 | 1 in 19 |
| Haunter (Master Ball #93) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€84 | 1 in 153 |
| Hilda (SAR #173) White Flare (SV11W) |
€32 | 1 in 28 |
| Hydreigon ex (SAR #171) White Flare (SV11W) |
€35 | 1 in 28 |
| Iono's Bellibolt ex (SAR #236) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€27 | 1 in 42 |
| Jellicent ex (SAR #170) White Flare (SV11W) |
€19 | 1 in 28 |
| Jolteon ex (SAR #209) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€37 | 1 in 33 |
| Keldeo ex (SAR #169) White Flare (SV11W) |
€28 | 1 in 28 |
| Kyogre (AR #80) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€12 | 1 in 4.0 |
| Kyurem ex (SAR #168) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€28 | 1 in 28 |
| Leafeon ex (SAR #200) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€51 | 1 in 33 |
| Leafeon VSTAR (SAR #210) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€40 | 1 in 25 |
| Lillie's Determination (SAR #91) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€72 | 1 in 18 |
| Lillie's Determination (SR #86) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€15 | 1 in 9.0 |
| Lugia (Classic Collection #142) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€170 | 1 in 15 |
| Magikarp (Classic Collection #165) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€62 | 1 in 15 |
| Magikarp (Master Ball #129) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€83 | 1 in 153 |
| Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex (SAR #243) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€25 | 1 in 42 |
| Mega Absol ex (SAR #89) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€19 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Chandelure ex (SAR #113) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€16 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Charizard X ex (MA #223) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€27 | 1 in 10 |
| Mega Charizard X ex (MUR #116) Inferno X (M2) |
€596 | 1 in 50 |
| Mega Charizard X ex (SAR #110) Inferno X (M2) |
€505 | 1 in 21 |
| Mega Charizard X ex (SR #94) Inferno X (M2) |
€29 | not known |
| Mega Clefable ex (SAR #112) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€21 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Darkrai ex (MUR #118) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€223 | 1 in 48 |
| Mega Darkrai ex (SAR #114) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€147 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Dragalge ex (SAR #116) Ninja Spinner (M4) |
€15 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Dragonite ex (MUR #250) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€122 | 1 in 50 |
| Mega Dragonite ex (SAR #246) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€142 | 1 in 42 |
| Mega Floette ex (SAR #115) Ninja Spinner (M4) |
€12 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Gardevoir ex (MUR #92) Mega Symphonia (M1S) |
€170 | 1 in 55 |
| Mega Gardevoir ex (SAR #87) Mega Symphonia (M1S) |
€72 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Gengar ex (SAR #240) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€241 | 1 in 42 |
| Mega Greninja ex (MUR #120) Ninja Spinner (M4) |
€415 | 1 in 50 |
| Mega Greninja ex (SAR #114) Ninja Spinner (M4) |
€131 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Kangaskhan ex (SAR #89) Mega Symphonia (M1S) |
€26 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Latias ex (SAR #88) Mega Symphonia (M1S) |
€27 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Lucario ex (MUR #92) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€204 | 1 in 55 |
| Mega Lucario ex (SAR #88) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€60 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Rayquaza ex (MUR #113) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€468 | 1 in 50 |
| Mega Rayquaza ex (SAR #110) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€208 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Rayquaza ex (SR #95) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€25 | 1 in 15 |
| Mega Sharpedo ex (SAR #113) Inferno X (M2) |
€12 | 1 in 21 |
| Mega Starmie ex (SAR #111) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€20 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Venusaur ex (SAR #87) Mega Brave (M1L) |
€42 | 1 in 18 |
| Mega Zeraora ex (SAR #112) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€21 | 1 in 19 |
| Mega Zygarde ex (MUR #117) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€132 | 1 in 60 |
| Mega Zygarde ex (SAR #113) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€22 | 1 in 19 |
| Meloetta ex (SAR #170) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€22 | 1 in 28 |
| Meowth ex (SAR #114) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€63 | 1 in 19 |
| Mew (AR #183) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€41 | not known |
| Mew ex (FUR #135) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€75 | 1 in 8.1 |
| Mew ex (SAR #129) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€79 | 1 in 10 |
| Mew ex (SAR #205) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€169 | not known |
| Mewtwo ex (FUR #134) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€75 | 1 in 8.1 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR (SAR #221) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€86 | 1 in 25 |
| Misty's Spirit (SR #108) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€13 | not known |
| Morpeko ex (SAR #115) Abyss Eye (M5) |
€31 | 1 in 19 |
| N's Plot (SAR #173) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€39 | 1 in 28 |
| N's Zoroark ex (SAR #242) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€45 | 1 in 42 |
| Oricorio ex (SAR #111) Inferno X (M2) |
€27 | 1 in 21 |
| Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR (UR #260) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€72 | 1 in 40 |
| Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR (UR #259) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€73 | 1 in 40 |
| Oshawott (AR #102) White Flare (SV11W) |
€45 | 1 in 21 |
| Pikachu (AR #205) VSTAR Universe (S12a) |
€284 | 1 in 100 |
| Pikachu ex (SAR #234) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€151 | 1 in 42 |
| Pikachu ex (SAR #126) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€66 | 1 in 10 |
| Pikachu ex (SAR #127) 30th Celebration (M6a) |
€96 | 1 in 10 |
| Pikachu ex (UR #236) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€37 | 1 in 75 |
| Pikachu (Master Ball #25) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€234 | 1 in 153 |
| Psyduck (Master Ball #54) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€118 | 1 in 153 |
| Raikou ex (SAR #108) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€41 | 1 in 19 |
| Reshiram ex (BWR #174) White Flare (SV11W) |
€279 | 1 in 35 |
| Reshiram ex (SAR #168) White Flare (SV11W) |
€139 | 1 in 28 |
| Rosa's Encouragement (SAR #115) Nihil Zero (M3) |
€42 | 1 in 19 |
| Seismitoad (AR #109) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€67 | 1 in 18 |
| Serperior ex (SAR #167) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€27 | 1 in 28 |
| Steven's Metagross ex (SAR #245) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€24 | 1 in 42 |
| Sylveon ex (SAR #212) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€107 | 1 in 33 |
| Team Rocket's Ariana (SAR #128) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€16 | 1 in 36 |
| Team Rocket's Crobat ex (SAR #127) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€44 | 1 in 36 |
| Team Rocket's Crobat ex (UR #131) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€14 | 1 in 37 |
| Team Rocket's Giovanni (SAR #129) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€22 | 1 in 36 |
| Team Rocket's Meowth (AR #109) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€14 | 1 in 4.0 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (SAR #237) Mega Dream ex (M2a) |
€83 | 1 in 42 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (SAR #125) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€304 | 1 in 36 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (SR #114) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€20 | 1 in 17 |
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (UR #130) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€42 | 1 in 37 |
| Team Rocket's Moltres ex (SAR #124) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€84 | 1 in 36 |
| Team Rocket's Nidoking ex (SAR #126) Glory of Team Rocket (SV10) |
€72 | 1 in 36 |
| Umbreon ex (SAR #217) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€313 | 1 in 33 |
| Umbreon (Master Ball #092) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€55 | 1 in 202 |
| Vaporeon ex (SAR #205) Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) |
€49 | 1 in 33 |
| Venusaur ex (SAR #200) Pokémon 151 (SV2a) |
€95 | not known |
| Victini (Master Ball #12) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€40 | not known |
| Whimsicott ex (SAR #167) White Flare (SV11W) |
€17 | 1 in 28 |
| Zekrom ex (BWR #174) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€235 | 1 in 36 |
| Zekrom ex (SAR #169) Black Bolt (SV11B) |
€120 | 1 in 28 |
| Zinnia's Trust (SAR #112) Storm Emeralda (M6) |
€21 | 1 in 19 |
| Zoroark (AR #141) White Flare (SV11W) |
€19 | 1 in 21 |
| Zorua (AR #140) White Flare (SV11W) |
€21 | 1 in 21 |
Questions about the odds calculator
How does the calculator work out the chance of a card?
We take the chance per box from the pull rates of the set. If a rarity appears in a known share of boxes and we know how many different cards that rarity has, we divide the chance by that number. We assume equal odds within a rarity. There are no official figures, so it remains an estimate.
What does "average number of boxes" mean?
It is 1 divided by the chance per box. At 1 in 33 you open 33 boxes on average before you pull the card. It is an average: you might find it in your first box, or still not after a hundred boxes.
What is the chance with several boxes?
The chance of at least once is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, where n is the number of boxes. At 1 in 33 and 33 boxes, that is about 64%, not 100%.
Is chasing cheaper than buying the single card?
Usually not. The math only compares the card you are chasing with the price of the boxes. The other cards you pull have value too, but they are not included. If you want one specific card, the single card is almost always the most predictable route.
Where do the prices come from?
The market value of the single card in ungraded condition comes from PriceCharting, converted to euros, with the date on each card page. Box prices are our current prices.