How many boxes do you need to open for one specific card?

The chance of "an SAR" is something very different from the chance of the SAR you are looking for. Divide the odds per box by the number of types, and you see how long you need to keep opening. We assume every type appears equally often; this is not officially confirmed.

Average number of boxes for one specific SAR

• Ninja Spinner (M4): SAR 1 in 3, 6 types: about 5.5% per box, 1 in 18.
• Mega Brave and Mega Symphonia (M1L, M1S): 1 in 3.5, 5 types: 1 in 17.5.
• Nihil Zero (M3) and Storm Emeralda (M6): 1 in 3 to 3.3, 6 types: 1 in 18 to 20.
• Black Bolt and White Flare: 1 in 4, 7 types: 1 in 28.
• Glory of Team Rocket (SV10): 1 in 6 to 8, 6 types: 1 in 36 to 48.
• VSTAR Universe (S12a): one SAR per box out of 25: 1 in 25.
• Terastal Festival ex (SV8a): one SAR per box out of 33: 1 in 33.
• Pokémon 151 (SV2a), one specific Master Ball card: 1 in 153.

Worked example

The Mega Greninja ex SAR from Ninja Spinner is at about €131 (PriceCharting, October 8, 2026). Eighteen boxes of Ninja Spinner cost about €1,421 with us (price October 22, 2026). You do get a lot of other cards with them, but if you only want that one card, a single is much cheaper.

Average is not a promise

You might hit it after three boxes, or still not after forty. The average only comes close over a very large number of boxes. So open for the fun of opening, and buy the card you really want as a single.