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Knowledge base · Odds

What are the odds of a Super Rare (SR) in a Japanese box?

Short answer

In the MEGA main sets, every box contains a guaranteed trainer SR (item, tool or stadium), and there is about a 77 to 80% chance of an SR of a Pokémon or supporter. In Terastal Festival ex (SV8a), an SR is much rarer: about one per five boxes.

A Super Rare (SR) is a full-art card with a textured surface, often a trainer card. In English it is called an Ultra Rare or Full Art. In most Japanese sets, the SR is the hit you come across most often after the Art Rares.

Odds per box

  • Mega Brave (M1L): 1 trainer SR guaranteed; SR of a Pokémon or supporter about 78%.
  • Mega Symphonia (M1S): 1 trainer SR guaranteed; Pokémon or supporter SR about 77%.
  • Nihil Zero (M3): 1 SR guaranteed; Pokémon or supporter SR about 79%, 12 types.
  • Storm Emeralda (M6): 1 SR guaranteed; Pokémon or supporter SR about 80%, 12 types.
  • Inferno X (M2): 1 SR (item, energy or stadium) plus 1 SR, SAR or MUR per box.
  • Glory of Team Rocket (SV10): SR about 70 to 81% per box, 13 types; at least one SR or better guaranteed.
  • Black Bolt (SV11B): about 1 in 1.2 boxes. White Flare (SV11W): about one per box.
  • VSTAR Universe (S12a) and Mega Dream ex (M2a): 1 SR per box.
  • Terastal Festival ex (SV8a): about one per five boxes.

What is an SR worth?

Less than you might think, except for popular Pokémon or trainers: Mega Charizard X ex SR from Inferno X is at about €29, Mega Rayquaza ex SR from Storm Emeralda at €25 and Lillie's Determination SR from Mega Brave at €15 (PriceCharting, October 8, 2026). The same trainer as an SAR is often worth many times more: Lillie's Determination SAR is at about €72.

Source and date: Pull rates in the shop (Oct 6-7, 2026); PriceCharting Oct 8, 2026

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